The municipal bond market has had a unique run in 2025, from uncertainty at the start to witnessing stronger flows and delivering attractive yields. Adam A. Weigold, CFA, senior portfolio manager, head of municipal bonds at Manulife Investment Management, highlights the opportunities in today’s market and discusses what’s driving yields.
After a year marked by early uncertainty and underperformance, the municipal bond market has rallied, offering investors attractive yields and renewed opportunity as 2025 draws to a close. In this episode, host John P. Bryson welcomes Adam for a timely discussion on what’s driving performance in the municipal bond market.
Adam shares his perspective on how supply dynamics, investor flows, and sector trends are shaping the market. He also discusses why entry points matter and how active management can add value in today’s environment. Here’s a sneak peek into the conversation:
Why should investors have tax-free municipal bonds in their portfolio?
Adam: Municipal bonds work well for investors who are looking for tax-free income. Adding stability to your portfolio using municipal bonds helps offset the volatility of equity holdings. Especially when it may seem like we’re heading toward a slowdown, these instruments tend to perform slightly better than other fixed-income instruments. Municipal bonds help provide a long-term income stream for investors.
What have been the major developments in the municipal bond market in 2025?
Adam: We started the year with weak performance, with municipal bonds underperforming corporates and Treasuries. There was an excess supply, over and above what we saw in 2024. This was driven by delayed infrastructure projects, which finally got funded, and costs went up. In the past two to three months, flows have improved, and returns are looking solid. Supply and demand have lined up. We expect solid returns in November and December, with good flows and lower supply offering support.
What are the biggest opportunities in the municipal bond market today?
Adam: The municipal bond market is generally offering attractive yield levels currently. We like the intermediate to long space because the curve is steep and income is high, but we’re avoid going too long due to volatility. Credit spreads within the municipal bond market have widened, so there’s room for tightening. Lastly, we also see value in bonds subject to Alternative Minimum Tax, low-coupon bonds, and sectors like airports, which tend to issue at wider spreads and have strong fundamentals.
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Speaker 1
Hello and welcome to the Portfolio Intelligence Podcast. I'm your host, John Bryson headed investment consulting in education savings at Manulife, John Hancock Investments. Today is October 31st, 2025. So happy Halloween to everybody. And I've got Adam Weigel, senior managing director and head of municipal securities at Manulife Investment Management, on the podcast. So I thought that I needed to come up with a really compelling start to this, to talk about Muni bonds and the fact that it's Halloween.
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Speaker 1
So I went on, I and I came up with the following. Welcome to the Portfolio Intelligence podcast, where we uncover the tricks and treats of the municipal bond market. No spooky surprises here. Just smart strategies. Market insights in a few ghostly trends haunting investors this season. Grab your pumpkin spice and let's carve into today's topic. Hey, Adam, what do you think of my intro?
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Speaker 2
Oh, boy.
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Speaker 3
John, I think you got to work on that.
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Speaker 2
I stick to your.
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Speaker 3
Own personal writing rather than I. From now on. I'm not not getting into the spooky bond market stuff today.
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Speaker 2
All right.
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Speaker 1
Not loving. I'm not getting a giant candy bar at your house. I'm using an apple this Halloween.
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Speaker 2
Season at the toothbrush.
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Speaker 3
Of the night.
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Speaker 1
Exactly. Well, Adam, thanks for coming on. I do want to talk about the muni market. I do think it's an overlooked part of the market. And you've been investing there for years. So I think you've got some great insights to share with our listeners. But before we jump in, tell me a little bit more about yourself, your career path and what got you interested in the muni market.
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Speaker 2
Yeah, so I graduated.
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Speaker 3
In 1998 and was actually placed into movies. I think like a lot of movie practitioners, you don't come.
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Speaker 2
Out of college hoping.
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Speaker 3
To get into the municipal bond market.
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Speaker 2
But, you know, I.
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Speaker 3
Got into it and and stayed there and really enjoyed. I think it's an interesting market. It's, you know, very inefficient. It's a market where if you do your homework, I think you can outperform. And so I spent about ten years as a research analyst. And then the last 17, 18 years as a portfolio manager, came over to John Hancock.
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Speaker 2
Four years ago to take over.
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Speaker 3
The you need department and improve performance, build the team out, build the product lineup out. And it's been fantastic.
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Speaker 1
Awesome. Now, we're thrilled to have you and the experience that you have and any conversation I've had with you. I'm always learning something new to Adam. I mentioned at the beginning that muni bonds are sometimes an overlooked part of the market. Why should investors have to be Muni in their portfolio?
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Speaker 3
Yeah, I think municipal bonds.
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Speaker 2
Are work well for investors who are looking for.
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Speaker 3
Tax free income. And that's really what it comes down to. And.
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Speaker 2
You know, I think stability in your portfolio.
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Speaker 3
Using munis helps.
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Speaker 2
Offset the volatility of of your equity.
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Speaker 3
Holdings and and really.
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Speaker 2
Less correlation to your equity.
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Speaker 3
Holdings. And particularly if we're going into a recession here. Or do you think things are going slow down. Munis tend to.
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Speaker 2
To.
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Speaker 3
Perform a.
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Speaker 2
Little bit better.
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Speaker 3
Than other fixed income from a spread standpoint.
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Speaker 2
As, as.
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Speaker 3
Things get weak in the economy. And really, I think investors.
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Speaker 2
You know, they use munis.
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Speaker 3
Not not necessarily.
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Speaker 2
Get rich. Your, your, your big total.
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Speaker 3
Returns are going to come out of your equity.
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Speaker 2
Portfolio. But to keep you rich.
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Speaker 3
And provide a long term income stream, that's going to kick out that tax free income that the.
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Speaker 2
Investor.
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Speaker 1
Very good. So let's bring the conversation into what's going on in the muni market this year. Can you walk you through what's going on.
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Speaker 3
Yeah I mean it's quite a year in the media space. A little bit of a surprise and in how things have have played out in one when we've kind of.
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Speaker 2
Looked at the year as the year.
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Speaker 3
Turned, last year and looked.
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Speaker 2
Out, you know, our view was probably.
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Speaker 3
That this was going to be a coupon clipping year. And where we are now actually proves that out. But I think how we.
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Speaker 2
Got here was was quite a.
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Speaker 3
Bit different than what.
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Speaker 2
We thought. A really weak.
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Speaker 3
Performance in munis in the beginning of the year. In fact.
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Speaker 2
Through July.
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Speaker 3
Munis had significantly underperformed corporates and.
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Speaker 2
And treasuries. We've had a very.
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Speaker 3
Strong run in the last 2 to 3 months here. And, and returns are looking solid and looking kind of what we thought they were going to be.
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Speaker 2
Which which is about.
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Speaker 3
Your coupon maybe a.
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Speaker 2
Little bit better. But really what hit us.
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Speaker 3
Earlier in the.
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Speaker 2
Year was supply. So excess supply this year.
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Speaker 3
Significantly higher than last year. And that's on top of a year in 2024 when when you saw an increase in supply to and supply.
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Speaker 2
Is really just.
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Speaker 3
Bonds being issued in the market and how many bonds, you know, projects being funded and what what has happened and what we're seeing is a lot of projects that got delayed during Covid, got pushed out and are finally getting funded and and really.
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Speaker 2
Just the infrastructure.
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Speaker 3
Needs of this country are getting funded. They're getting municipal market and costs have gone up significantly.
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Speaker 2
So labor costs and material costs. We talked to construction.
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Speaker 3
Managers, and a lot of the very large construction managers.
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Speaker 2
Are frankly busy with other projects like I.
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Speaker 3
And and that infrastructure and things like that that are probably more.
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Speaker 2
Profitable than building roads and bridges. So the costs there have gone up.
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Speaker 3
And in addition to.
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Speaker 2
That, we actually.
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Speaker 3
Had a kind of a scare at the beginning of the year.
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Speaker 2
And I think that the thought.
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Speaker 3
That the muni tax and tax exemption might go away under the tax.
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Speaker 2
Bill actually scared a lot folks out of our.
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Speaker 3
Out of our market, or maybe pushed them from making new investments. And, you know, that that didn't come to.
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Speaker 2
Be.
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Speaker 3
And so what we had in March and April, which were really the biggest months of underperformance for munis.
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Speaker 2
Was you had a lot of issuance, but.
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Speaker 3
You didn't have a lot of flows coming into mutual funds and ETFs and SMA.
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Speaker 2
So a.
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Speaker 3
Supply and demand problem and we haven't.
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Speaker 2
Really recovered.
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Speaker 3
That and still recover from that. And until well, I would say the last 2 or 3 months when supplies lined up a little bit, and you're starting to see.
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Speaker 2
Flows really solid flows.
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Speaker 3
Back into our market. And certainly seasonality is has had an impact. And, and some of the, the kind of idiosyncratic events.
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Speaker 2
That have occurred at.
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Speaker 3
Different times, excess.
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Speaker 2
Supply. We actually saw quite a bit of higher ed supplies.
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Speaker 3
If you remember, the administration had threatened some of.
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Speaker 2
The colleges.
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Speaker 3
Around the country.
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Speaker 2
With with their tax.
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Speaker 3
Exempt.
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Speaker 2
Status. So we saw a lot of supplies. Issuers started to.
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Speaker 3
Get into the market, you know, tried to get into the market before there were potentially any issues. So the supply and demand didn't line up. It is now and we've had a nice rally.
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Speaker 2
We still have a ways to go to get.
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Speaker 3
In line with.
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Speaker 2
Corporate.
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Speaker 3
Bonds and treasuries from a return perspective. But generally.
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Speaker 2
You know, we see.
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Speaker 3
Solid November and December returns if.
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Speaker 2
We look back historically.
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Speaker 3
And.
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Speaker 2
You know, we're looking forward to hopefully having good.
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Speaker 3
Flows and lower.
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Speaker 2
Supply as.
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Speaker 3
We go into year end. And and we hope to kind of make up some of the.
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Speaker 2
The deficit.
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Speaker 3
Between munis and.
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Speaker 2
Corporates.
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Speaker 3
From a total return standpoint.
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Speaker 1
So listening to you, it's obviously a complicated market, an opportunity for active managers to find opportunities. When you think about managing portfolios because you run a number of them, how do you think about investing? What sets you apart?
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Speaker 2
Yeah, I think for for us, we're.
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Speaker 3
We're active managers and and.
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Speaker 2
That.
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Speaker 3
That kind of sets you apart in the muni space that munis have traditionally been been a buy and hold asset.
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Speaker 2
Class where.
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Speaker 3
Individuals buy bonds and they hold on in the bonds, mature, or they could call them, they go buy another one.
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Speaker 2
For, for.
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Speaker 3
For us, I think.
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Speaker 2
We're a little bit different that we take.
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Speaker 3
An active approach. And you're seeing seeing as a dynamic market and we want to be opportunistic and active and dynamic as well.
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Speaker 2
So, you know, what does that mean?
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Speaker 3
It means active trading. That means opportunistic.
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Speaker 2
Use of of.
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Speaker 3
Credit in our.
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Speaker 2
Portfolio.
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Speaker 3
Looking for kind of catalysts in the market where, where we can add total return.
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Speaker 2
So, you know, credit from a.
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Speaker 3
Credit standpoint, we may toggle up and down our.
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Speaker 2
Credit exposed or.
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Speaker 3
So bonds, you know, in the, in the double B, triple B single AA range, we may increase or.
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Speaker 2
Decrease those as.
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Speaker 3
Spreads compressor widen. And then we're always looking for kind of where we think the market is going and what people are going to want six months or a year down the road. And we want to be, you know, buying those bonds beforehand and selling them into demand at some future date.
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Speaker 2
So it's a it's a lot of, a lot of that, a lot of opportunistic.
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Speaker 3
Kind of moving around and maybe trading in and out of sectors. If a certain sector has performed very well.
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Speaker 2
You know, we'll we'll move out of that sector.
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Speaker 3
And move into a sector that we still like from a credit standpoint. But maybe the credit spreads haven't tightened significantly. And we think there's.
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Speaker 2
Some juice to to be squeezed out a certain sector.
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Speaker 3
And then just looking at.
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Speaker 2
The, the.
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Speaker 3
Maturity curve and where we want to sit, you know, do we want to be short, intermediate, long and where.
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Speaker 2
Is the best place.
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Speaker 3
On the curve. And we don't, we don't really make.
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Speaker 2
I would say, big interest rate calls. But we will look at.
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Speaker 3
The curve and, and and kind of see where we want to.
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Speaker 2
Take risk and what the best spots.
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Speaker 3
On the.
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Speaker 2
Curve are where there's some.
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Speaker 3
Value. And I think by moving your.
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Speaker 2
Portfolio into those areas where there.
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Speaker 3
Is potential upside.
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Speaker 2
Upside, you.
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Speaker 3
Can add total return. So most of our inspector and investors I think they're they're looking.
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Speaker 2
For.
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Speaker 3
Tax exempt income. And that's first and foremost. And we want to provide that. But on top of that we want to add.
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Speaker 2
A.
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Speaker 3
Layer of total return. And we do that by being I would say opportunistic and active.
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Speaker 1
Excellent. Building on opportunistic, what do you think are the three biggest opportunities in the muni market today?
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Speaker 2
Yeah, I.
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Speaker 3
Think the beauty market in general right now is offering a.
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Speaker 2
Really attractive yield. So historically we're seeing yield levels that are fairly high.
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Speaker 3
And as the.
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Speaker 2
Fed starts to cut rates.
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Speaker 3
And potentially yields move down across the curve that you could potentially see some good total return out there. And we're trying to kind of find find the.
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Speaker 2
Spaces for that. So you know I think entry point is is a huge.
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Speaker 3
Determinant.
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Speaker 2
Of of your.
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Speaker 3
Long term return where what you'll do buy in that. And you know we're looking attractive in my opinion now I think kind of digging into that a.
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Speaker 2
Little bit, we, I.
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Speaker 3
Think the intermediate to long space.
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Speaker 2
Our curve is very steep. So you get a.
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Speaker 3
Lot of income as you move.
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Speaker 2
Out the curve. You know.
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Speaker 3
We don't want to be too long because.
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Speaker 2
There's quite a bit of volatility.
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Speaker 3
Out there. But that kind of long intermediate space looks attractive.
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Speaker 2
The curve is very steep.
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Speaker 3
And then.
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Speaker 2
Credit. So
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Speaker 3
As you move down the.
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Speaker 2
Credit curve.
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Speaker 3
What we see in this year is actually in the muni space, credit spreads have widened out a little bit.
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Speaker 2
And if you look at the corporates.
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Speaker 3
Corporate bonds and.
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Speaker 2
Corporate high yield, specifically the credit spreads, they're at.
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Speaker 3
All time tights.
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Speaker 2
So we think that there is.
00;10;55;23 - 00;10;57;14
Speaker 3
Room in in the credit.
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Speaker 2
Space for spreads to tighten.
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Speaker 3
And that.
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Speaker 2
Space.
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Speaker 3
Has underperformed high grade.
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Speaker 2
Year to date but.
00;11;03;13 - 00;11;05;16
Speaker 3
By a decent amount. So I think there's.
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Speaker 2
There's room to move there.
00;11;07;07 - 00;11;08;27
Speaker 3
And then if you kind of look.
00;11;09;00 - 00;11;09;17
Speaker 2
Even.
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Speaker 3
Deeper into that, the types of bonds.
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Speaker 2
That are.
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Speaker 3
Available and, and.
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Speaker 2
What, what we think adds value.
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Speaker 3
Bonds subject to Amt.
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Speaker 2
So there are a lot of people who don't buy.
00;11;21;14 - 00;11;23;25
Speaker 3
Bonds, subject A and T and you get a.
00;11;23;28 - 00;11;25;15
Speaker 2
Little spread. They're low.
00;11;25;15 - 00;11;26;23
Speaker 3
Coupon bonds and.
00;11;26;23 - 00;11;28;14
Speaker 2
Sectors. We like airports that if.
00;11;28;14 - 00;11;34;28
Speaker 3
You've been to an airport, every airport in the country is doing construction on a new terminal. It's going up or old ones be rehabbed.
00;11;34;29 - 00;11;37;02
Speaker 2
So there's a lot of debt out there that's being issued.
00;11;37;02 - 00;11;38;03
Speaker 3
And they tend to have the.
00;11;38;03 - 00;11;41;07
Speaker 2
Issue at wider spreads here. But airports.
00;11;41;13 - 00;11;41;27
Speaker 3
Tend to be.
00;11;42;04 - 00;11;42;22
Speaker 2
Relatively.
00;11;42;22 - 00;11;47;22
Speaker 3
High grade A pretty consistent. And their revenue sources, and air.
00;11;47;22 - 00;11;49;24
Speaker 2
Travels back to, you know, pre-COVID.
00;11;49;24 - 00;11;51;26
Speaker 3
Levels and their financially doing well.
00;11;51;26 - 00;11;52;26
Speaker 2
So we like.
00;11;53;00 - 00;11;57;19
Speaker 3
To think we can find a spread in the like the underlying.
00;11;57;22 - 00;11;59;00
Speaker 2
The credit or.
00;11;59;00 - 00;12;05;26
Speaker 3
The underlying structure that that's where we'll move. And I think, you know, oh, intermediate to long high yield. And then certain kind.
00;12;05;26 - 00;12;07;00
Speaker 2
Of subs.
00;12;07;03 - 00;12;10;05
Speaker 3
Sectors of the market offer some opportunities. And that's where we're moving.
00;12;10;07 - 00;12;20;12
Speaker 1
Excellent. So we talked a lot about the muni market. We learned a lot along the way. I have one final question. Probably the most important question. Dodger the Blue Jays tonight.
00;12;20;14 - 00;12;21;10
Speaker 2
Absolutely.
00;12;21;10 - 00;12;24;03
Speaker 3
I'm a Dodgers fan. I grew up in Los Angeles.
00;12;24;05 - 00;12;27;03
Speaker 2
Was actually out for for game three of the World Series.
00;12;27;05 - 00;12;29;20
Speaker 3
Took my son, 18 innings.
00;12;29;22 - 00;12;31;03
Speaker 2
So I'm a little worried.
00;12;31;03 - 00;12;32;27
Speaker 3
They haven't looked good in the last two games.
00;12;32;27 - 00;12;36;11
Speaker 2
But the Blue Jays have looked great, and they need to get their baths hot to.
00;12;36;11 - 00;12;38;14
Speaker 3
To pull in off here. So I'm I'm rooting.
00;12;38;14 - 00;12;39;23
Speaker 2
For the Dodgers. All right.
00;12;39;25 - 00;13;03;29
Speaker 1
Let's get the bats high. Great stuff Adam. Thanks so much for being on the podcast. I very much appreciate it. Our audience does. Two folks that you want to hear more, please subscribe to the Portfolio Intelligence podcast on iTunes or wherever you find your favorite podcast or our website. There you can also find viewpoints on macro trends, portfolio construction ideas, alternatives a number of business building ideas, and much, much more.
00;13;04;00 - 00;13;06;04
Speaker 1
As always, thanks for listening to the show.
00;13;08;15 - 00;13;37;28
Speaker 1
This podcast is being brought to you by John Hancock Investment Management Distributors, LLC member, Finra, CPC. The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the speaker are subject to change. As market and other conditions warrant and do not constitute investment advice or a recommendation regarding any specific product or security, there's no guarantee that any investment strategy discussed will be successful or achieve any particular level of results.
00;13;38;01 - 00;13;50;03
Speaker 1
Any economic or market performance information is historical and is not indicative of future results, and no forecasts are guaranteed. Investing involves risks including the potential loss of principal.
00;13;50;03 - 00;13;57;29
Speaker 1
Industrial bond prices can decline due to fiscal mismanagement or tax shortfalls, or if related projects become unprofitable.
00;13;57;29 - 00;14;02;19
Speaker 1
Duration. Measure the sensitivity of the price of bonds to a change in interest rates.